European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
TT Teamloss 1:2series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Dragon Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TT Team
Batrideroften banned
Askold · 1 game
Dragon Esports
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 27 games
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 25 games
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 24 games
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 22 games
Phoenix
Mary_y · 19 games
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 17 games
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 17 games
Gyrocoptersignature
lil pleb · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
486 picks · 615 bans
Clockwerk
458 picks · 531 bans
Pangolier
389 picks · 574 bans
Dark Willow
380 picks · 189 bans
Batrider
365 picks · 404 bans
Muerta
358 picks · 263 bans
Invoker
336 picks · 922 bans
Beastmaster
333 picks · 693 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 59%
Hero pool strength56% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Dragon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:39
TT Team 17%Dragon Esports 83%
The model gave 83% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 43:29.
Game 2prediction missed36:37
TT Team 17%Dragon Esports 83%
The model gave 83% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by TT Team in 45:10.
Game 3prediction correct10:30
TT Team 17%Dragon Esports 83%
The model gave 83% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 24:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon Esports · 83%
Series resultDragon Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3