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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Apex Genesiswin 3:0
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 3:0
M80loss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Apex Genesis

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bignum · 14 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Fayde · 11 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
YamSun · 9 games
44%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
YamSun · 9 games
33%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 9 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Bignum · 9 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
YamSun · 8 games
75%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Bignum · 8 games
50%

M80

Snapfire
Snapfire
Elmisho · 25 games
24%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 23 games
57%
Rubick
Rubick
Elmisho · 19 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
MoOz · 17 games
35%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Vitaly · 16 games
31%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Elmisho · 16 games
38%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
MoOz · 16 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
MoOz · 15 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
489 picks · 627 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
465 picks · 531 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
392 picks · 573 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
378 picks · 189 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
362 picks · 407 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
352 picks · 263 bans
50%
Invoker
Invoker
336 picks · 916 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
331 picks · 690 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 38%
Hero pool strength57% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% M80
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:16
Apex Genesis 48%M80 52%
The model gave 52% on M80 — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 38:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistYamSun
51% · 153 games61% · 22 games
AbaddonK1
Abaddon
Tiny
TinyRCY
56% · 255 games45% · 72 games
DawnbreakerILICH-
Dawnbreaker
Venomancer
VenomancerSpeeed
41% · 27 games49% · 311 games
BatriderElmisho
Batrider
Night Stalker
Night StalkerFayde
47% · 21 game51% · 236 games
PhoenixMoOz
Phoenix
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBignum
50% · 185 games
Game 2prediction missed35:23
Apex Genesis 46%M80 54%
The model gave 54% on M80 — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 41:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYamSun
51% · 255 games48% · 100 games
TerrorbladeK1
Terrorblade
Invoker
InvokerRCY
49% · 134 games59% · 273 games
Centaur WarrunnerILICH-
Centaur Warrunner
Night Stalker
Night StalkerFayde
33% · 36 games46% · 150 games
MuertaElmisho
Muerta
Venomancer
VenomancerSpeeed
50% · 27 games55% · 209 games
PhoenixMoOz
Phoenix
Batrider
BatriderBignum
48% · 280 games
Game 3prediction missed22:3
Apex Genesis 46%M80 54%
The model gave 54% on M80 — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 24:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYamSun
47% · 253 games54% · 257 games
WeaverK1
Weaver
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFayde
48% · 197 games49% · 50 games
LycanILICH-
Lycan
Invoker
InvokerRCY
48% · 116 games50% · 426 games
BatriderMoOz
Batrider
Phoenix
PhoenixSpeeed
53% · 205 games48% · 317 games
Dark WillowElmisho
Dark Willow
Rubick
RubickBignum
52% · 279 games
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 57%
Series resultApex Genesis 3:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3