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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 23 games
74%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
No!ob · 17 games
65%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 17 games
82%
Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 16 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 15 games
33%
Mars
Marssignature
No!ob · 14 games
64%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Miracle- · 13 games
62%

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 16 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 15 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 14 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 11 games
36%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Nefrit · 11 games
64%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
LeBronDota · 10 games
70%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
MikSa` · 10 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Stojkov · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
488 picks · 631 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
463 picks · 525 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
393 picks · 571 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
378 picks · 190 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
357 picks · 404 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
348 picks · 262 bans
50%
Invoker
Invoker
335 picks · 914 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
329 picks · 683 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:32
Nigma Galaxy 64%Zero Tenacity 36%
The model gave 64% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 38:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMiracle-
44% · 100 games46% · 300 games
GyrocopterDaaD-
Gyrocopter
Razor
RazorSumaiL
42% · 169 games54% · 255 games
PuckStojkov
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNo!ob
45% · 182 games57% · 118 games
EnigmaNefrit
Enigma
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiGH
52% · 68 games58% · 95 games
Nyx AssassinPablo
Nyx Assassin
Batrider
BatriderOmaR
46% · 316 games59% · 67 games
LichLeBronDota
Lich
Game 2prediction correct26:18
Nigma Galaxy 64%Zero Tenacity 36%
The model gave 64% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 31:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingMiracle-
45% · 207 games51% · 175 games
Templar AssassinStojkov
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSumaiL
52% · 166 games50% · 177 games
UrsaDaaD-
Ursa
Tiny
TinyNo!ob
54% · 280 games50% · 280 games
Primal BeastNefrit
Primal Beast
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
44% · 223 games52% · 279 games
LionPablo
Lion
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinOmaR
57% · 98 games45% · 63 games
LichLeBronDota
Lich
Game 3prediction correct30:24
Nigma Galaxy 65%Zero Tenacity 35%
The model gave 65% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 41:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMiracle-
52% · 144 games49% · 125 games
LinaStojkov
Lina
Mars
MarsNo!ob
43% · 179 games42% · 334 games
MorphlingDaaD-
Morphling
Monkey King
Monkey KingSumaiL
59% · 166 games49% · 232 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Pugna
PugnaGH
55% · 177 games46% · 178 games
MuertaPablo
Muerta
Batrider
BatriderOmaR
50% · 302 games56% · 99 games
Ogre MagiLeBronDota
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 78%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3