1win Series Dota 2 Punch · BO5
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 3:1series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 3:1
9Pandasloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Windrangeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 27 games
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 25 games
Enchantresssignature
RESPECT · 25 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 24 games
Weaveroften banned
swedenstrong · 22 games
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 21 game
Marcisignature
swedenstrong · 20 games
9Pandas
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 9 games
Undyingsignature
Solo · 9 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 8 games
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 8 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 7 games
Tinysignature
erase · 7 games
Alchemistsignature
DarkLord^ · 6 games
Dark Willowsignature
yamich · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
487 picks · 640 bans
Clockwerk
462 picks · 524 bans
Pangolier
390 picks · 571 bans
Dark Willow
378 picks · 189 bans
Batrider
357 picks · 404 bans
Muerta
343 picks · 261 bans
Invoker
334 picks · 912 bans
Beastmaster
328 picks · 678 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total82% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:21
1w Team 68%9Pandas 32%
The model gave 68% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 32:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolierdualrazee
MorphlingDarkLord^
SlarkMunkushi~
Tinyerase
MarsCloud
Tidehunterlaise
Zeusswedenstrong
Muertajesv
LichRESPECT
Elder TitanSolo
Game 2prediction correct24:10
1w Team 67%9Pandas 33%
The model gave 67% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 34:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingMunkushi~
Nature's ProphetDarkLord^
Pangolierdualrazee
Tinyerase
Primal BeastCloud
Tidehunterlaise
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Ogre MagiSolo
Elder TitanRESPECT
Muertajesv
Game 3prediction correct36:30
1w Team 69%9Pandas 31%
The model gave 69% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 42:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterMunkushi~
TerrorbladeDarkLord^
Invokerdualrazee
Timbersawlaise
PhoenixCloud
Pangoliererase
Ogre MagiRESPECT
Muertajesv
Tinyswedenstrong
Elder TitanSolo
Game 4prediction correct36:16
1w Team 68%9Pandas 32%
The model gave 68% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 31:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spiritdualrazee
AlchemistDarkLord^
BristlebackCloud
Linaerase
MagnusMunkushi~
Pangolierlaise
Muertaswedenstrong
ClockwerkSolo
Shadow DemonRESPECT
Shadow Shamanjesv
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 82%
Series result1w Team 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4