European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportswin 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Greeceloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dragon Esports
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 26 games
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 25 games
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 25 games
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 22 games
Phoenix
Mary_y · 18 games
Gyrocoptersignature
lil pleb · 17 games
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 17 games
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 16 games
Team Greece
Tuskoften banned
SsaSpartan · 4 games
Muerta
dEsire · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Focus · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
ThuG · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Madara · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Focus · 2 games
Viperoften banned
Focus · 2 games
Abaddon
SsaSpartan · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
485 picks · 647 bans
Clockwerk
458 picks · 525 bans
Pangolier
388 picks · 570 bans
Dark Willow
377 picks · 189 bans
Batrider
357 picks · 395 bans
Muerta
340 picks · 260 bans
Invoker
330 picks · 913 bans
Beastmaster
323 picks · 675 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 31%
Hero pool strength57% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total84% Dragon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Dragon Esports 84%Team Greece 16%
The model gave 84% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports.
Game 2prediction correct
Dragon Esports 84%Team Greece 16%
The model gave 84% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon Esports · 84%
Series resultDragon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2