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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 26 games
31%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
bengan · 24 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 23 games
48%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 22 games
45%
Jakiro
Jakiro
bengan · 21 game
43%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 20 games
45%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Force · 20 games
45%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
bengan · 20 games
35%

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 16 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 15 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 14 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 10 games
30%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
MikSa` · 10 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Stojkov · 10 games
80%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
LeBronDota · 9 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
MikSa` · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
485 picks · 647 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
458 picks · 524 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
387 picks · 570 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
377 picks · 189 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
355 picks · 394 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
339 picks · 260 bans
51%
Invoker
Invoker
330 picks · 911 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
323 picks · 672 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 59%
Hero pool strength56% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total74% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed54:43
MOUZ 64%Zero Tenacity 36%
The model gave 64% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 1:14:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterLowskill
49% · 212 games46% · 159 games
SvenDaaD-
Sven
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSupream^
50% · 122 games46% · 103 games
SniperStojkov
Sniper
Phoenix
PhoenixFly
43% · 173 games56% · 151 game
DawnbreakerNefrit
Dawnbreaker
Magnus
MagnusTobi
60% · 151 game50% · 265 games
LionPablo
Lion
Muerta
MuertaThiolicor
49% · 143 games49% · 123 games
Ogre MagiLeBronDota
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct23:21
MOUZ 65%Zero Tenacity 35%
The model gave 65% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 33:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingLowskill
51% · 376 games56% · 177 games
Faceless VoidDaaD-
Faceless Void
Tiny
TinySupream^
54% · 496 games41% · 151 game
TerrorbladeNefrit
Terrorblade
Bristleback
BristlebackTobi
57% · 98 games45% · 446 games
PangolierStojkov
Pangolier
Batrider
BatriderThiolicor
47% · 414 games45% · 363 games
RubickPablo
Rubick
Lich
LichFly
62% · 48 games49% · 295 games
PhoenixLeBronDota
Phoenix
Game 3prediction missed30:24
MOUZ 64%Zero Tenacity 36%
The model gave 64% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 44:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreLowskill
57% · 14 games47% · 165 games
SvenDaaD-
Sven
Tiny
TinySupream^
58% · 347 games53% · 203 games
Ember SpiritStojkov
Ember Spirit
Bristleback
BristlebackTobi
52% · 80 games36% · 123 games
TerrorbladeNefrit
Terrorblade
Pugna
PugnaFly
55% · 129 games46% · 52 games
LichLeBronDota
Lich
Batrider
BatriderThiolicor
46% · 332 games50% · 359 games
HoodwinkPablo
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 74%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3