?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 34 games
68%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 30 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 30 games
60%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 27 games
52%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 27 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 27 games
63%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 23 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 22 games
50%

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 24 games
75%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
No!ob · 17 games
65%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 17 games
82%
Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 16 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 15 games
33%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Miracle- · 14 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
OmaR · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
487 picks · 649 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
456 picks · 523 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
387 picks · 568 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
377 picks · 189 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
354 picks · 394 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
336 picks · 258 bans
51%
Invoker
Invoker
330 picks · 907 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
322 picks · 667 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:22
AVULUS 55%Nigma Galaxy 45%
The model gave 55% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 38:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackSmiling Knight
51% · 114 games46% · 139 games
LinaSumaiL
Lina
Tiny
TinyStormstormer
49% · 492 games47% · 364 games
GyrocopterMiracle-
Gyrocopter
Tidehunter
TidehunterXibbe
53% · 71 game45% · 266 games
DoomNo!ob
Doom
Phoenix
PhoenixSoNNeikO
50% · 313 games50% · 385 games
Centaur WarrunnerOmaR
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
BatriderEkki
56% · 467 games53% · 303 games
Shadow DemonGH
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct39:17
AVULUS 55%Nigma Galaxy 45%
The model gave 55% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 36:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingSmiling Knight
47% · 11 games53% · 124 games
Templar AssassinMiracle-
Templar Assassin
Dark Seer
Dark SeerXibbe
50% · 106 games42% · 125 games
RazorSumaiL
Razor
Tiny
TinyStormstormer
53% · 291 game47% · 215 games
MarsNo!ob
Mars
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinEkki
58% · 80 games46% · 60 games
Ogre MagiGH
Ogre Magi
Pugna
PugnaSoNNeikO
54% · 164 games45% · 128 games
MuertaOmaR
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 56%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2