1win Series Dota 2 Punch · BO5
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 1:3series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 1:3
HULIGANIwin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Windrangeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 27 games
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 25 games
Enchantresssignature
RESPECT · 25 games
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 25 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 24 games
Weaveroften banned
swedenstrong · 22 games
Marcisignature
swedenstrong · 20 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Munkushi~ · 20 games
HULIGANI
Enchantresssignature
Panto · 20 games
Pucksignature
Mirage · 17 games
Snapfire
OneJey · 17 games
Batrideroften banned
Hellscream · 15 games
Morphlingoften banned
v1olent- · 14 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
v1olent- · 14 games
Dark Willow
OneJey · 13 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Mirage · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
489 picks · 649 bans
Clockwerk
455 picks · 523 bans
Pangolier
386 picks · 568 bans
Dark Willow
378 picks · 189 bans
Batrider
353 picks · 392 bans
Muerta
335 picks · 256 bans
Invoker
328 picks · 907 bans
Beastmaster
321 picks · 664 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 42%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total84% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:34
1w Team 70%HULIGANI 30%
The model gave 70% on 1w Team — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 42:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invokerdualrazee
Razorv1olent-
MedusaMunkushi~
TinyMirage
TidehunterCloud
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Nyx Assassinswedenstrong
ChenMalady
LichRESPECT
Linaqueezy
Game 2prediction correct50:21
1w Team 69%HULIGANI 31%
The model gave 69% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 59:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingMunkushi~
LinaMirage
Pangolierdualrazee
Alchemistv1olent-
DawnbreakerCloud
TidehunterAlberkaaa
Muertaswedenstrong
Batriderqueezy
Ogre MagiRESPECT
LichMalady
Game 3prediction missed18:29
1w Team 72%HULIGANI 28%
The model gave 72% on 1w Team — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 37:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
Alchemistv1olent-
Queen of Paindualrazee
Primal BeastAlberkaaa
DawnbreakerCloud
InvokerMirage
Lionswedenstrong
Nyx Assassinqueezy
PugnaRESPECT
Winter WyvernMalady
Game 4prediction missed25:38
1w Team 72%HULIGANI 28%
The model gave 72% on 1w Team — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 51:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaMunkushi~
SniperMirage
Invokerdualrazee
Alchemistv1olent-
VisageCloud
Linaqueezy
Tinyswedenstrong
MarsAlberkaaa
PugnaRESPECT
ClockwerkMalady
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 84%
Series resultHULIGANI 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4