European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
TT Teamwin 2:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
YNGBLDloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TT Team
Batrideroften banned
Askold · 1 game
YNGBLD
Doomoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
490 picks · 652 bans
Clockwerk
450 picks · 518 bans
Pangolier
385 picks · 564 bans
Dark Willow
373 picks · 191 bans
Batrider
347 picks · 386 bans
Muerta
328 picks · 247 bans
Invoker
323 picks · 899 bans
Luna
322 picks · 422 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% YNGBLD
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% YNGBLD
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:31
TT Team 48%YNGBLD 52%
The model gave 52% on YNGBLD — the game was taken by YNGBLD in 42:56.
Game 2prediction missed56:41
TT Team 48%YNGBLD 52%
The model gave 52% on YNGBLD — the game was taken by TT Team in 50:50.
Game 3prediction missed29:13
TT Team 48%YNGBLD 52%
The model gave 52% on YNGBLD — the game was taken by TT Team in 29:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteYNGBLD · 52%
Series resultTT Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3