FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriloss 1:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
M80win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
Clockwerkoften banned
Gardick · 5 games
Muerta
Genek · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Genek · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
Lumière · 4 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lumière · 3 games
Lion
Genek · 3 games
Ogre Magi
Gardick · 3 games
M80
Snapfire
Elmisho · 25 games
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 22 games
Rubick
Elmisho · 19 games
Jakiro
MoOz · 15 games
Phoenix
MoOz · 15 games
Tuskoften banned
MoOz · 15 games
Clockwerkoften banned
MoOz · 14 games
Dark Seer
Vitaly · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
487 picks · 656 bans
Clockwerk
449 picks · 519 bans
Pangolier
384 picks · 565 bans
Dark Willow
372 picks · 190 bans
Batrider
345 picks · 385 bans
Muerta
326 picks · 247 bans
Invoker
323 picks · 897 bans
Luna
322 picks · 425 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 30%
Hero pool strength57% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% M80
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:22
Hokori 41%M80 59%
The model gave 59% on M80 — the game was taken by M80 in 39:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterLumière
BristlebackILICH-
DoomVitaly
RazorK1
TimbersawPiPi
Dark WillowElmisho
MuertaGenek
Ogre MagiMoOz
TuskGardick
Game 2prediction missed49:23
Hokori 41%M80 59%
The model gave 59% on M80 — the game was taken by Hokori in 39:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorLumière
GyrocopterK1
DawnbreakerVitaly
EnigmaILICH-
Earth SpiritPiPi
MuertaElmisho
ClockwerkGardick
Ogre MagiMoOz
BatriderGenek
Game 3prediction correct36:38
Hokori 47%M80 53%
The model gave 53% on M80 — the game was taken by M80 in 42:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaLumière
AbaddonK1
BeastmasterVitaly
DoomILICH-
Earth SpiritPiPi
PhoenixMoOz
BatriderGenek
TuskElmisho
Ogre MagiGardick
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 66%
Series resultM80 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3