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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Fusionloss 0:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Apex Genesiswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fusion

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 6 games
33%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Frank · 5 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Prada · 5 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Michael · 5 games
20%
Sven
Sven
Wits · 5 games
20%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Prada · 4 games
25%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mnz · 4 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 4 games
0%

Apex Genesis

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bignum · 12 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Fayde · 10 games
70%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
YamSun · 9 games
44%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
YamSun · 9 games
33%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 9 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Bignum · 9 games
33%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Bignum · 8 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
YamSun · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
487 picks · 656 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
448 picks · 519 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
383 picks · 565 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
371 picks · 190 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
344 picks · 385 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
326 picks · 247 bans
51%
Invoker
Invoker
323 picks · 896 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
322 picks · 425 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Apex Genesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:19
Fusion 45%Apex Genesis 55%
The model gave 55% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 23:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFrank
49% · 68 games46% · 79 games
BroodmotherFayde
Broodmother
Slark
SlarkMnz
51% · 50 games55% · 170 games
WeaverYamSun
Weaver
Pangolier
PangolierLeostyle
43% · 300 games55% · 186 games
MagnusRCY
Magnus
Batrider
BatriderMichael
48% · 294 games56% · 124 games
ChenSpeeed
Chen
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiPrada
46% · 71 game50% · 224 games
Dark WillowBignum
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct21:22
Fusion 47%Apex Genesis 53%
The model gave 53% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 33:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverMnz
54% · 90 games44% · 272 games
MorphlingYamSun
Morphling
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFrank
52% · 158 games41% · 25 games
LycanFayde
Lycan
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLeostyle
44% · 45 games46% · 144 games
Earth SpiritRCY
Earth Spirit
Lion
LionMichael
54% · 170 games49% · 54 games
LichSpeeed
Lich
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPrada
54% · 195 games56% · 163 games
MagnusBignum
Magnus
Model check result
Model favoriteApex Genesis · 57%
Series resultApex Genesis 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2