European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Türkiyeloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Türkiye
Rubick
Jeezy · 5 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 4 games
Phoenix
Jeezy · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
G.T.I · 4 games
Disruptor
Stoic · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jeezy · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
G.T.I · 3 games
Lich
Stoic · 2 games
Zero Tenacity
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 14 games
Dark Willow
jAMES · 14 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 13 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 9 games
Sand Kingoften banned
MikSa` · 9 games
Ogre Magisignature
LeBronDota · 8 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Stojkov · 8 games
Terrorbladesignature
MikSa` · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
485 picks · 655 bans
Clockwerk
446 picks · 518 bans
Pangolier
381 picks · 562 bans
Dark Willow
370 picks · 190 bans
Batrider
344 picks · 382 bans
Muerta
326 picks · 246 bans
Luna
322 picks · 425 bans
Invoker
320 picks · 894 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Team Türkiye
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:39
Team Türkiye 52%Zero Tenacity 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Türkiye — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 50:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainG.T.I
GyrocopterDaaD-
ClockwerkStoic
LinaStojkov
56% · 54 games
EnigmaNefrit
51% · 40 games
Nyx AssassinPablo
50% · 127 games
Dark WillowLeBronDota
Game 2prediction missed46:48
Team Türkiye 51%Zero Tenacity 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Türkiye — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 56:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TuskG.T.I
Drow RangerDaaD-
RubickStoic
LinaStojkov
60% · 86 games
Sand KingNefrit
53% · 35 games
Ogre MagiLeBronDota
52% · 163 games
GyrocopterPablo
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 51%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2