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European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Passion UAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 25 games
28%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 24 games
42%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
bengan · 24 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 23 games
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 21 game
43%
Jakiro
Jakiro
bengan · 21 game
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 20 games
45%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Force · 20 games
45%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 33 games
55%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 28 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 25 games
48%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 21 game
48%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Batyuk · 21 game
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
niche · 20 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 18 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 16 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
484 picks · 655 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
444 picks · 516 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
381 picks · 561 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
370 picks · 189 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
342 picks · 381 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
324 picks · 246 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
323 picks · 425 bans
54%
Invoker
Invoker
319 picks · 895 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Passion UA
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total64% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:33
MOUZ 56%Passion UA 44%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 50:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorLowskill
45% · 168 games52% · 216 games
Ember Spiritniche
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinySupream^
52% · 424 games47% · 353 games
GyrocopterCrystallize
Gyrocopter
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSkyLark
43% · 146 games58% · 87 games
TidehunterBatyuk
Tidehunter
Batrider
BatriderThiolicor
45% · 424 games56% · 298 games
Clockwerkkreker
Clockwerk
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiFly
55% · 92 games50% · 300 games
LionFernans
Lion
Game 2prediction correct36:16
MOUZ 58%Passion UA 42%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 42:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinLowskill
49% · 124 games44% · 64 games
Linaniche
Lina
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSkyLark
51% · 188 games57% · 154 games
Monkey KingCrystallize
Monkey King
Sand King
Sand KingSupream^
56% · 119 games45% · 141 game
MarsBatyuk
Mars
Muerta
MuertaThiolicor
44% · 113 games47% · 214 games
BatriderFernans
Batrider
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiFly
57% · 63 games52% · 34 games
Lichkreker
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 64%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2