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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Greeceloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 28 games
54%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 24 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 22 games
64%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 21 game
48%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
lil pleb · 18 games
61%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 18 games
44%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Mary_y · 17 games
41%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 15 games
40%

Team Greece

Tusk
Tuskoften banned
SsaSpartan · 3 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Focus · 2 games
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Madara · 2 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
dEsire · 2 games
0%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Focus · 2 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddon
SsaSpartan · 1 game
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
SsaSpartan · 1 game
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Focus · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
484 picks · 655 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
444 picks · 516 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
381 picks · 561 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
370 picks · 189 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
342 picks · 381 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
324 picks · 246 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
323 picks · 425 bans
54%
Invoker
Invoker
319 picks · 895 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 36%
Hero pool strength55% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% Dragon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:24
Dragon Esports 69%Team Greece 31%
The model gave 69% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 33:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinlil pleb
50% · 103 games46% · 164 games
TerrorbladeFocus
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckPanda
58% · 168 games49% · 38 games
ClinkzMadara
Clinkz
Beastmaster
BeastmasterInfernal
48% · 200 games49% · 159 games
InvokerThuG
Invoker
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonxsvampire
49% · 201 game51% · 135 games
MuertadEsire
Muerta
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiMary_y
51% · 91 game49% · 267 games
TuskSsaSpartan
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct37:19
Dragon Esports 64%Team Greece 36%
The model gave 64% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 39:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinlil pleb
52% · 174 games46% · 53 games
Anti-MageMadara
Anti-Mage
Morphling
MorphlingPanda
43% · 301 game53% · 273 games
PuckThuG
Puck
Mars
MarsInfernal
51% · 260 games58% · 53 games
Night StalkerFocus
Night Stalker
Muerta
Muertaxsvampire
43% · 141 game49% · 411 games
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Phoenix
PhoenixMary_y
51% · 241 game54% · 327 games
GyrocopterSsaSpartan
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon Esports · 78%
Series resultDragon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2