European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TT Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Dark Willowsignature
ani-san · 8 games
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 7 games
Underlord
Actor · 7 games
Invokeroften banned
Ethereal · 5 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Actor · 5 games
Rubick
ani-san · 5 games
Snapfire
ani-san · 5 games
TT Team
Batrideroften banned
Askold · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
485 picks · 658 bans
Clockwerk
444 picks · 514 bans
Pangolier
381 picks · 559 bans
Dark Willow
368 picks · 189 bans
Batrider
342 picks · 379 bans
Muerta
324 picks · 245 bans
Luna
323 picks · 428 bans
Invoker
319 picks · 890 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 36%
Hero pool strength50% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:26
Hydra 71%TT Team 29%
The model gave 71% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 40:30.
Game 2prediction correct49:31
Hydra 71%TT Team 29%
The model gave 71% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 54:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 71%
Series resultHydra 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2