The International 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionPPhenomenonwin 2:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Igniteloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Phenomenon
Drow Rangeroften banned
ArrOw · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
ArrOw · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
ArrOw · 1 game
Ignite
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
623 picks · 405 bans
Rubick
528 picks · 291 bans
Phoenix
485 picks · 583 bans
Tiny
470 picks · 389 bans
Pangolier
427 picks · 607 bans
Puck
345 picks · 985 bans
Tusk
342 picks · 289 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 513 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Phenomenon
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Ignite
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Phenomenon 39%Ignite 61%
The model gave 61% on Ignite — the game was taken by Ignite.
Game 2prediction missed
Phenomenon 39%Ignite 61%
The model gave 61% on Ignite — the game was taken by Phenomenon.
Game 3prediction missed27:18
Phenomenon 39%Ignite 61%
The model gave 61% on Ignite — the game was taken by Phenomenon in 26:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteIgnite · 61%
Series resultPhenomenon 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3