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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 33 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 30 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 30 games
60%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 27 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 27 games
63%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 26 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 22 games
77%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 21 game
71%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 29 games
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 23 games
61%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 23 games
35%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 21 game
48%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
lil pleb · 18 games
61%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 17 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Mary_y · 17 games
41%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
lil pleb · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 659 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
438 picks · 510 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
378 picks · 554 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
365 picks · 189 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
340 picks · 369 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
323 picks · 429 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
317 picks · 242 bans
50%
Invoker
Invoker
315 picks · 878 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 62%
Hero pool strength59% AVULUS
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total80% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:9
AVULUS 68%Dragon Esports 32%
The model gave 68% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 31:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingSmiling Knight
55% · 64 games45% · 94 games
LinaPanda
Lina
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritStormstormer
56% · 70 games42% · 25 games
Phantom Assassinlil pleb
Phantom Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXibbe
47% · 107 games47% · 121 game
DawnbreakerInfernal
Dawnbreaker
Pugna
PugnaSoNNeikO
54% · 52 games46% · 57 games
LichMary_y
Lich
Lion
LionEkki
50% · 104 games57% · 100 games
Nyx Assassinxsvampire
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct37:16
AVULUS 69%Dragon Esports 31%
The model gave 69% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 27:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackSmiling Knight
55% · 168 games39% · 162 games
Morphlinglil pleb
Morphling
Sniper
SniperStormstormer
52% · 118 games50% · 110 games
MarsInfernal
Mars
Enigma
EnigmaXibbe
53% · 150 games49% · 122 games
InvokerPanda
Invoker
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinEkki
54% · 90 games48% · 115 games
Muertaxsvampire
Muerta
Pugna
PugnaSoNNeikO
54% · 183 games47% · 200 games
ClockwerkMary_y
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 80%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2