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European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriloss 0:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Passion UAwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hokori

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Lumière · 4 games
75%
Muerta
Muerta
Genek · 4 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Genek · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Gardick · 3 games
0%
Lion
Lion
Genek · 3 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Gardick · 3 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
67%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 32 games
53%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 28 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 25 games
48%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 21 game
48%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Batyuk · 21 game
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
niche · 20 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 17 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 16 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 659 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
437 picks · 509 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
378 picks · 554 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
365 picks · 188 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
340 picks · 367 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
323 picks · 429 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
316 picks · 241 bans
50%
Invoker
Invoker
315 picks · 877 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:34
Hokori 48%Passion UA 52%
The model gave 52% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 37:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterLumière
53% · 174 games49% · 79 games
BristlebackBatyuk
Bristleback
Earthshaker
EarthshakerPiPi
54% · 47 games48% · 100 games
UrsaCrystallize
Ursa
Tidehunter
TidehunterVitaly
62% · 43 games38% · 165 games
Ember Spiritniche
Ember Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkGenek
56% · 270 games41% · 183 games
SnapfireFernans
Snapfire
Undying
UndyingGardick
57% · 25 games50% · 32 games
Lichkreker
Lich
Game 2prediction correct23:41
Hokori 45%Passion UA 55%
The model gave 55% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 35:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinLumière
51% · 186 games52% · 149 games
BristlebackCrystallize
Bristleback
Doom
DoomVitaly
55% · 294 games49% · 362 games
Tinyniche
Tiny
Muerta
MuertaGenek
51% · 210 games47% · 112 games
DawnbreakerBatyuk
Dawnbreaker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPiPi
51% · 281 game51% · 313 games
Shadow Demonkreker
Shadow Demon
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGardick
43% · 333 games47% · 368 games
HoodwinkFernans
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 57%
Series resultPassion UA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2