The International 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionPPhenomenonwin 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
NLNA Last Hopeloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Phenomenon
No games played over 6 months.
NA Last Hope
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
623 picks · 404 bans
Rubick
526 picks · 290 bans
Phoenix
484 picks · 581 bans
Tiny
470 picks · 388 bans
Pangolier
427 picks · 602 bans
Puck
345 picks · 982 bans
Tusk
342 picks · 289 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 508 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Phenomenon
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% NA Last Hope
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:45
Phenomenon 47%NA Last Hope 53%
The model gave 53% on NA Last Hope — the game was taken by NA Last Hope in 32:10.
Game 2prediction missed36:12
Phenomenon 47%NA Last Hope 53%
The model gave 53% on NA Last Hope — the game was taken by Phenomenon in 27:09.
Game 3prediction missed39:19
Phenomenon 47%NA Last Hope 53%
The model gave 53% on NA Last Hope — the game was taken by Phenomenon in 27:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteNA Last Hope · 53%
Series resultPhenomenon 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3