FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
The MongolZwin 2:0series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The MongolZ
Clockwerkoften banned
Hishge · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
JG · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Wonder'boy · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Wonder'boy · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Hishge · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
JG · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 1 game
Execration
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 14 games
Enchantressoften banned
cml · 14 games
Marcisignature
Tino- · 14 games
Elder Titansignature
cml · 13 games
Razoroften banned
Abat · 12 games
Rubicksignature
Shanks · 11 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Abat · 10 games
Tinysignature
Abat · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
481 picks · 661 bans
Clockwerk
431 picks · 505 bans
Pangolier
377 picks · 551 bans
Dark Willow
365 picks · 186 bans
Batrider
336 picks · 361 bans
Luna
325 picks · 432 bans
Invoker
314 picks · 871 bans
Dragon Knight
311 picks · 610 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 45%
Hero pool strength61% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:22
The MongolZ 35%Execration 65%
The model gave 65% on Execration — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 45:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerWonder'boy
MorphlingAbat
Dark SeerJG
EarthshakerTino-
ClockwerkHishge
LinaShanks
50% · 57 games
Grimstrokecml
Game 2prediction missed28:35
The MongolZ 36%Execration 64%
The model gave 64% on Execration — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 48:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckWonder'boy
RazorAbat
Centaur WarrunnerJG
GyrocopterTino-
BatriderHishge
Shadow DemonShanks
48% · 204 games
Phoenixcml
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 78%
Series resultThe MongolZ 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2