European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Greeceloss 1:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Türkiyewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Greece
Tuskoften banned
SsaSpartan · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Focus · 1 game
Dark Willow
dEsire · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Focus · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
Madara · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
ThuG · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
ThuG · 1 game
Muerta
dEsire · 1 game
Team Türkiye
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 3 games
Disruptor
Stoic · 3 games
Phoenix
Jeezy · 3 games
Rubick
Jeezy · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
G.T.I · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
G.T.I · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
479 picks · 661 bans
Clockwerk
431 picks · 502 bans
Pangolier
377 picks · 551 bans
Dark Willow
365 picks · 186 bans
Batrider
334 picks · 360 bans
Luna
325 picks · 432 bans
Invoker
313 picks · 867 bans
Muerta
309 picks · 237 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Team Türkiye
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team Greece
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:46
Team Greece 52%Team Türkiye 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Greece — the game was taken by Team Türkiye in 31:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingMadara
Queen of PainG.T.I
BeastmasterFocus
ZeusStoic
ViperThuG
HoodwinkJeezy
LiondEsire
AbaddonSsaSpartan
Game 2prediction missed42:38
Team Greece 55%Team Türkiye 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Greece — the game was taken by Team Türkiye in 42:30.
Game 3prediction missed42:13
Team Greece 55%Team Türkiye 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Greece — the game was taken by Team Türkiye in 29:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Greece · 55%
Series resultTeam Türkiye 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3