?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Passion UAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ani-san · 7 games
57%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
43%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 7 games
29%
Underlord
Underlord
Actor · 7 games
29%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Ethereal · 5 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Actor · 5 games
20%
Snapfire
Snapfire
ani-san · 5 games
20%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Actor · 4 games
25%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 30 games
53%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 28 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 25 games
48%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 21 game
48%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Batyuk · 21 game
62%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 19 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 17 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 16 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 661 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
431 picks · 504 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
377 picks · 551 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
363 picks · 185 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
334 picks · 359 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
326 picks · 432 bans
55%
Invoker
Invoker
314 picks · 865 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
309 picks · 605 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Passion UA
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total57% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:27
Hydra 45%Passion UA 55%
The model gave 55% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 21:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinselfhate
52% · 104 games54% · 192 games
MagnusBatyuk
Magnus
Tiny
TinyKatsura
50% · 231 game57% · 97 games
BristlebackCrystallize
Bristleback
Beastmaster
BeastmasterActor
49% · 202 games44% · 98 games
Earth Spiritniche
Earth Spirit
Rubick
RubickAstral
46% · 223 games51% · 144 games
Pugnakreker
Pugna
48% · 229 games
Dark WillowFernans
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed44:26
Hydra 44%Passion UA 56%
The model gave 56% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Hydra in 46:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerselfhate
46% · 27 games62% · 84 games
MagnusBatyuk
Magnus
Beastmaster
BeastmasterActor
46% · 194 games54% · 183 games
Tinyniche
Tiny
Monkey King
Monkey KingKatsura
50% · 161 game41% · 66 games
Troll WarlordCrystallize
Troll Warlord
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAstral
48% · 191 game48% · 204 games
HoodwinkFernans
Hoodwink
54% · 36 games
Lichkreker
Lich
Game 3prediction correct36:50
Hydra 48%Passion UA 52%
The model gave 52% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 58:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingKatsura
58% · 206 games39% · 108 games
RazorCrystallize
Razor
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinselfhate
52% · 213 games45% · 270 games
Pangolierniche
Pangolier
Tidehunter
TidehunterActor
48% · 69 games56% · 105 games
MagnusBatyuk
Magnus
Phoenix
PhoenixAstral
49% · 342 games48% · 234 games
HoodwinkFernans
Hoodwink
50% · 113 games
Marcikreker
Marci
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 57%
Series resultPassion UA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3