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European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriloss 0:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hokori

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Lumière · 4 games
75%
Muerta
Muerta
Genek · 4 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Genek · 3 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Gardick · 3 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
67%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Gardick · 3 games
33%
Lion
Lion
Genek · 2 games
100%

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 24 games
42%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 24 games
29%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
bengan · 24 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 23 games
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 21 game
43%
Jakiro
Jakiro
bengan · 21 game
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Force · 20 games
45%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
bengan · 20 games
35%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
482 picks · 664 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
428 picks · 504 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
378 picks · 549 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
362 picks · 185 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
332 picks · 359 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
327 picks · 432 bans
55%
Invoker
Invoker
315 picks · 861 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
310 picks · 609 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:39
Hokori 42%MOUZ 58%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 33:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal Beast
Primal BeastPiPi
46% · 196 games48% · 180 games
Templar AssassinNande
Templar Assassin
Razor
RazorLumière
39% · 142 games56% · 100 games
DawnbreakerTobi
Dawnbreaker
Monkey King
Monkey KingAlone
53% · 134 games50% · 188 games
Sand KingSupream^
Sand King
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGardick
49% · 222 games52% · 402 games
BatriderThiolicor
Batrider
Lion
LionGenek
55% · 240 games51% · 64 games
LichFly
Lich
Game 2prediction correct31:44
Hokori 39%MOUZ 61%
The model gave 61% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 39:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAlone
51% · 88 games52% · 16 games
SpectreNande
Spectre
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritPiPi
45% · 146 games51% · 235 games
Centaur WarrunnerTobi
Centaur Warrunner
Snapfire
SnapfireDemon
49% · 199 games55% · 62 games
EarthshakerSupream^
Earthshaker
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinLumière
49% · 126 games47% · 347 games
PhoenixFly
Phoenix
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGardick
49% · 214 games53% · 113 games
Nyx AssassinThiolicor
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 67%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2