European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Greeceloss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
9Pandaswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Greece
No games played over 6 months.
9Pandas
Elder Titansignature
Solo · 8 games
Undyingsignature
Solo · 8 games
Weaversignature
sayuw · 8 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 6 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 6 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Solo · 6 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 6 games
Alchemistoften banned
DarkLord^ · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
481 picks · 664 bans
Clockwerk
428 picks · 502 bans
Pangolier
377 picks · 550 bans
Dark Willow
360 picks · 185 bans
Batrider
332 picks · 357 bans
Luna
327 picks · 432 bans
Invoker
314 picks · 860 bans
Enchantress
310 picks · 609 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Team Greece 37%9Pandas 63%
The model gave 63% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Team Greece.
Game 2prediction correct18:39
Team Greece 42%9Pandas 58%
The model gave 58% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 40:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeMadara
Templar AssassinDarkLord^
DawnbreakerFocus
Pangoliererase
InvokerThuG
Tidehunterlaise
Dark WillowdEsire
Muertajesv
TuskSsaSpartan
UndyingSolo
Game 3prediction correct14:30
Team Greece 40%9Pandas 60%
The model gave 60% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 31:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur WarrunnerFocus
GyrocopterDarkLord^
Ember SpiritThuG
Tinyerase
Drow RangerMadara
Tidehunterlaise
MuertadEsire
Elder TitanSolo
TuskSsaSpartan
Dark Willowjesv
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 63%
Series result9Pandas 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3