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MESA Invitational 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 36 games
64%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 26 games
69%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 23 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 23 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 21 game
95%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 20 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 18 games
50%

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Kuku · 17 games
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Akashi · 17 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kuku · 16 games
44%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Ponyo · 15 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Ws · 13 games
62%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 13 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 12 games
42%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Jhocam · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
483 picks · 665 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
427 picks · 499 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
376 picks · 549 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
361 picks · 185 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
331 picks · 356 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
329 picks · 433 bans
55%
Invoker
Invoker
312 picks · 853 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
311 picks · 607 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 53%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:18
Natus Vincere Junior 53%Talon Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 36:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealergotthejuice
51% · 182 games45% · 263 games
Dragon KnightNatsumi
Dragon Knight
Dark Seer
Dark Seerpma
56% · 179 games50% · 119 games
Monkey KingMikoto
Monkey King
Magnus
MagnusNiku
58% · 213 games46% · 230 games
PhoenixKuku
Phoenix
Lich
LichRiddys
51% · 52 games47% · 258 games
MarsWs
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkZayac
46% · 460 games49% · 216 games
Shadow DemonJhocam
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed7:38
Natus Vincere Junior 54%Talon Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 28:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusagotthejuice
55% · 144 games50% · 86 games
Anti-MageNatsumi
Anti-Mage
Pangolier
Pangolierpma
46% · 350 games44% · 283 games
BeastmasterWs
Beastmaster
Tiny
TinyNiku
49% · 289 games49% · 86 games
EarthshakerMikoto
Earthshaker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonZayac
55% · 226 games48% · 348 games
PhoenixKuku
Phoenix
Lion
LionRiddys
54% · 186 games51% · 392 games
ClockwerkJhocam
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 53%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2