ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO5
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 3:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Team Liquidloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARIVISION
Batridersignature
9Class · 19 games
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
Razorsignature
Crystallis · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
DM · 16 games
Beastmastersignature
DM · 15 games
Chensignature
Dukalis · 15 games
Earth Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
Dark Willowsignature
9Class · 14 games
Team Liquid
Tinysignature
Nisha · 30 games
Beastmastersignature
33 · 28 games
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 25 games
Razorsignature
miCKe · 24 games
Clockwerkoften banned
iNSaNiA · 23 games
Hoodwink
Boxi · 23 games
Muerta
Boxi · 23 games
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
482 picks · 663 bans
Clockwerk
425 picks · 498 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 547 bans
Dark Willow
359 picks · 183 bans
Batrider
330 picks · 354 bans
Luna
329 picks · 433 bans
Enchantress
311 picks · 604 bans
Dragon Knight
310 picks · 576 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 51%
Hero pool strength53% PARIVISION
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total56% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:38
PARIVISION 51%Team Liquid 49%
The model gave 51% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 50:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerCrystallis
SpectremiCKe
Earth SpiritNo[o]ne
EarthshakerNisha
MagnusDM
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
Dark Willow9Class
RubickiNSaNiA
Elder TitanDukalis
TechiesBoxi
Game 2prediction missed34:33
PARIVISION 45%Team Liquid 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 52:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterCrystallis
Monkey KingmiCKe
LycanDM
Earth SpiritNisha
InvokerNo[o]ne
MarsSabeRLight-
Nyx Assassin9Class
Dark WillowBoxi
ClockwerkDukalis
OracleiNSaNiA
Game 3prediction missed45:44
PARIVISION 47%Team Liquid 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 55:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterCrystallis
TinymiCKe
InvokerNo[o]ne
PangolierNisha
EnigmaDM
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
LichDukalis
TuskBoxi
Nyx Assassin9Class
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
Game 4prediction missed30:10
PARIVISION 48%Team Liquid 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 26:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperNo[o]ne
Storm SpiritNisha
SlarkCrystallis
Monkey KingmiCKe
BeastmasterDM
TerrorbladeSabeRLight-
Batrider9Class
Shadow DemonBoxi
ClockwerkDukalis
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 56%
Series resultPARIVISION 3:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 4