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MESA Invitational 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brothersloss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Talon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Poloson · 13 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Poloson · 13 games
31%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Emo · 12 games
67%
Muerta
Muerta
BoBoKa · 11 games
55%
Medusa
Medusasignature
flyfly · 10 games
70%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Poloson · 10 games
70%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
flyfly · 9 games
89%
Luna
Lunasignature
flyfly · 9 games
67%

Talon Esports

Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Akashi · 17 games
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Kuku · 16 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kuku · 16 games
44%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Ponyo · 15 games
47%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 13 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 12 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 12 games
58%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Ws · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
482 picks · 663 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
423 picks · 497 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 546 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
359 picks · 183 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
330 picks · 352 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
329 picks · 433 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
310 picks · 604 bans
52%
Invoker
Invoker
310 picks · 846 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:31
Yakult Brothers 46%Talon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 30:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightflyfly
44% · 360 games56% · 129 games
SniperMikoto
Sniper
Tiny
TinyEmo
49% · 340 games47% · 186 games
BeastmasterWs
Beastmaster
Magnus
Magnuszeal
56% · 140 games49% · 381 game
GyrocopterNatsumi
Gyrocopter
Enchantress
Enchantress天命
46% · 279 games54% · 143 games
ChenKuku
Chen
Lina
LinaBoBoKa
46% · 87 games53% · 367 games
ClockwerkJhocam
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed45:9
Yakult Brothers 45%Talon Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 48:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
Spectreflyfly
58% · 16 games47% · 81 game
Nature's ProphetNatsumi
Nature's Prophet
Viper
Viperzeal
49% · 76 games51% · 79 games
LinaMikoto
Lina
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritEmo
42% · 114 games47% · 218 games
Dragon KnightWs
Dragon Knight
Phoenix
Phoenix天命
50% · 237 games57% · 73 games
Naga SirenKuku
Naga Siren
Magnus
MagnusBoBoKa
55% · 179 games50% · 171 game
LionJhocam
Lion
Game 3prediction correct8:31
Yakult Brothers 49%Talon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 35:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusaflyfly
49% · 194 games44% · 209 games
MorphlingNatsumi
Morphling
Terrorblade
Terrorbladezeal
49% · 147 games53% · 120 games
Earth SpiritMikoto
Earth Spirit
Earthshaker
EarthshakerEmo
45% · 68 games51% · 268 games
DoomWs
Doom
Sniper
SniperBoBoKa
51% · 144 games56% · 190 games
Shadow DemonJhocam
Shadow Demon
Clockwerk
Clockwerk天命
53% · 308 games48% · 74 games
Ogre MagiKuku
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 56%
Series resultTalon Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3