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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Batrider
Batridersignature
Save- · 29 games
66%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Kataomi · 28 games
50%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Save- · 26 games
77%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Save- · 22 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 20 games
70%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 20 games
80%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 19 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Pure~ · 18 games
61%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 30 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 28 games
61%
Razor
Razorsignature
miCKe · 24 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
iNSaNiA · 23 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
70%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 23 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 22 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Boxi · 22 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
484 picks · 663 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
423 picks · 496 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
376 picks · 543 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
359 picks · 183 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
332 picks · 352 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
329 picks · 434 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
312 picks · 601 bans
52%
Invoker
Invoker
310 picks · 843 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head4 – 5
Model total60% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:24
BETBOOM TEAM 56%Team Liquid 44%
The model gave 56% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 36:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaPure~
46% · 83 games48% · 40 games
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
Dawnbreaker
Lycan
LycanMieRo
46% · 22 games42% · 25 games
EarthshakermiCKe
Earthshaker
Magnus
Magnuskiyotaka
50% · 161 game57% · 99 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSave-
48% · 95 games53% · 200 games
RubickBoxi
Rubick
Lich
LichKataomi
55% · 21 game47% · 18 games
OracleiNSaNiA
Oracle
Game 2prediction missed39:56
BETBOOM TEAM 56%Team Liquid 44%
The model gave 56% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:07:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
Tinkerkiyotaka
37% · 20 games51% · 133 games
MagnusmiCKe
Magnus
Tiny
TinyPure~
56% · 305 games48% · 88 games
Earth SpiritNisha
Earth Spirit
Kunkka
KunkkaMieRo
46% · 149 games48% · 152 games
SnapfireBoxi
Snapfire
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSave-
55% · 265 games50% · 308 games
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Lich
LichKataomi
50% · 22 games44% · 80 games
JakiroiNSaNiA
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed19:51
BETBOOM TEAM 53%Team Liquid 47%
The model gave 53% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingPure~
48% · 245 games46% · 121 game
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
Nature's Prophet
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritkiyotaka
49% · 73 games55% · 179 games
MagnusNisha
Magnus
Timbersaw
TimbersawMieRo
53% · 184 games62% · 64 games
TidehunterSabeRLight-
Tidehunter
Lion
LionSave-
46% · 217 games47% · 317 games
HoodwinkBoxi
Hoodwink
Lich
LichKataomi
56% · 29 games39% · 67 games
JakiroiNSaNiA
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 60%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3