EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eatersloss 0:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rune Eaters
Tusk
ani-san · 21 game
Hoodwink
ani-san · 18 games
Windranger
yowaai · 17 games
Jakiro
Kidaro · 16 games
Snapfireoften banned
Malik · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
Ankou · 15 games
Disruptorsignature
Kidaro · 15 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
yowaai · 15 games
Natus Vincere
Hoodwink
Daze · 20 games
Kezoften banned
Niku · 20 games
Warlock
Riddys · 17 games
Shadow Demon
Daze · 16 games
Rubick
Daze · 15 games
Underlordsignature
pma · 15 games
Axesignature
pma · 14 games
Centaur Warrunner
pma · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
503 picks · 351 bans
Clockwerk
354 picks · 642 bans
Bane
345 picks · 394 bans
Rubick
329 picks · 186 bans
Ember Spirit
317 picks · 454 bans
Tiny
315 picks · 344 bans
Shadow Fiend
300 picks · 570 bans
Windranger
300 picks · 228 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:38
Rune Eaters 38%Natus Vincere 62%
The model gave 62% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 48:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckCopy
Clinkzgotthejuice
Shadow Fiendrincyq
Night StalkerNiku
BeastmasterMalik
Underlordpma
Keeper of the LightEkki
RubickDaze
Ringmasteraik
BaneRiddys
Game 2prediction correct22:68
Rune Eaters 38%Natus Vincere 62%
The model gave 62% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 53:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritCopy
Kezgotthejuice
LargoMalik
PangolierNiku
Slarkrincyq
Underlordpma
Lichaik
MiranaDaze
Winter WyvernEkki
BaneRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 73%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2