?
arrow_backBack to match
MESA Invitational 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 35 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 26 games
69%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 23 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 22 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 20 games
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 19 games
95%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 18 games
83%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
gotthejuice · 18 games
50%

Aurora Gaming

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Q · 16 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Q · 15 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Jabz · 15 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 14 games
36%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 13 games
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Q · 12 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Malady · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
484 picks · 663 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
421 picks · 496 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
376 picks · 542 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
359 picks · 183 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
331 picks · 352 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
329 picks · 434 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
312 picks · 601 bans
52%
Invoker
Invoker
309 picks · 843 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 48%
Hero pool strength58% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:13
Natus Vincere Junior 54%Aurora Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 46:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
49% · 458 games43% · 239 games
MorphlingPalos
Morphling
Tiny
TinyNiku
54% · 555 games47% · 339 games
Dragon KnightAbed
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand Kingpma
49% · 250 games50% · 205 games
Primal BeastJabz
Primal Beast
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinZayac
59% · 114 games49% · 336 games
HoodwinkQ
Hoodwink
Lich
LichRiddys
57% · 54 games45% · 312 games
BatriderOli
Batrider
Game 2prediction missed30:31
Natus Vincere Junior 50%Aurora Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 1:02:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawNiku
53% · 216 games48% · 231 game
MorphlingPalos
Morphling
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
50% · 283 games56% · 127 games
InvokerAbed
Invoker
Beastmaster
Beastmasterpma
49% · 246 games52% · 98 games
DawnbreakerJabz
Dawnbreaker
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterZayac
38% · 46 games51% · 115 games
ChenOli
Chen
Lich
LichRiddys
50% · 42 games51% · 262 games
ClockwerkQ
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct25:4
Natus Vincere Junior 52%Aurora Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 28:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusagotthejuice
44% · 165 games47% · 326 games
Dragon KnightPalos
Dragon Knight
Dark Seer
Dark Seerpma
50% · 201 game54% · 181 game
Ember SpiritAbed
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinyNiku
52% · 422 games48% · 229 games
PhoenixJabz
Phoenix
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterZayac
44% · 41 game61% · 105 games
ChenOli
Chen
Lion
LionRiddys
45% · 265 games51% · 253 games
ClockwerkQ
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 52%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3