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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spiritloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 30 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 28 games
61%
Razor
Razorsignature
miCKe · 24 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
iNSaNiA · 23 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
70%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 23 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 22 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Boxi · 22 games
55%

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 45 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Larl · 29 games
62%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 28 games
82%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Miposhka · 25 games
48%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Malik · 24 games
71%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Larl · 23 games
52%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 23 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Miposhka · 23 games
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
485 picks · 666 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
423 picks · 498 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
376 picks · 542 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
360 picks · 183 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
329 picks · 353 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
329 picks · 436 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
314 picks · 601 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
310 picks · 569 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team Liquid
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total59% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:31
Team Liquid 52%Team Spirit 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 59:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingmiCKe
43% · 310 games55% · 128 games
MedusaSatanic
Medusa
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNisha
40% · 68 games50% · 315 games
PuckLarl
Puck
Mars
MarsSabeRLight-
47% · 295 games57% · 200 games
MagnusMalik
Magnus
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBoxi
52% · 302 games51% · 419 games
Batriderrue
Batrider
Phoenix
PhoenixiNSaNiA
47% · 223 games57% · 136 games
Elder TitanMiposhka
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct30:19
Team Liquid 54%Team Spirit 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 41:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MagemiCKe
51% · 71 game48% · 122 games
MedusaSatanic
Medusa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
53% · 209 games51% · 268 games
TinyLarl
Tiny
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
56% · 234 games48% · 21 game
LycanMalik
Lycan
Phoenix
PhoenixiNSaNiA
48% · 225 games45% · 278 games
Batriderrue
Batrider
Oracle
OracleBoxi
61% · 57 games43% · 107 games
Elder TitanMiposhka
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction correct43:13
Team Liquid 58%Team Spirit 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
41% · 101 game60% · 62 games
SlarkSatanic
Slark
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNisha
54% · 98 games54% · 98 games
SniperLarl
Sniper
Tidehunter
TidehunterSabeRLight-
54% · 69 games46% · 164 games
DoomMalik
Doom
Phoenix
PhoenixiNSaNiA
52% · 177 games43% · 272 games
Batriderrue
Batrider
Lion
LionBoxi
48% · 220 games53% · 69 games
Ogre MagiMiposhka
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 59%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3