MESA Invitational 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The MongolZloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Akashi · 17 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Kuku · 16 games
Enchantressoften banned
Kuku · 16 games
Phoenix
Ponyo · 14 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 13 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 11 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Ws · 11 games
The MongolZ
Clockwerkoften banned
Hishge · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Wonder'boy · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Hishge · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
JG · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
JG · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Wonder'boy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
484 picks · 666 bans
Clockwerk
422 picks · 497 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 541 bans
Dark Willow
360 picks · 183 bans
Batrider
329 picks · 352 bans
Luna
329 picks · 436 bans
Enchantress
314 picks · 600 bans
Dragon Knight
310 picks · 567 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:16
Talon Esports 73%The MongolZ 27%
The model gave 73% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 37:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistNatsumi
PuckWonder'boy
LinaMikoto
BristlebackJG
BeastmasterWs
ClockwerkHishge
LichKuku
Shadow ShamanJhocam
Game 2prediction correct28:16
Talon Esports 74%The MongolZ 26%
The model gave 74% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 38:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverNatsumi
Templar AssassinWonder'boy
LinaMikoto
PangolierJG
DawnbreakerWs
TuskHishge
PhoenixKuku
LionJhocam
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 88%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2