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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:2
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PARIVISIONwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Batrider
Batridersignature
Save- · 29 games
66%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Kataomi · 28 games
50%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Save- · 24 games
79%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Save- · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 20 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 19 games
63%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 19 games
79%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Pure~ · 18 games
61%

PARIVISION

Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 19 games
79%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
DM · 16 games
63%
Razor
Razorsignature
Crystallis · 16 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 15 games
60%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 15 games
80%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
73%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Dukalis · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
485 picks · 667 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
423 picks · 497 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 539 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
358 picks · 184 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
329 picks · 351 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
329 picks · 437 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
315 picks · 597 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
310 picks · 561 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% PARIVISION
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total69% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:18
BETBOOM TEAM 59%PARIVISION 41%
The model gave 59% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 37:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkPure~
40% · 26 games55% · 17 games
LycanDM
Lycan
Invoker
Invokerkiyotaka
48% · 116 games55% · 34 games
SniperNo[o]ne
Sniper
Axe
AxeMieRo
38% · 17 games57% · 80 games
BristlebackCrystallis
Bristleback
Muerta
MuertaSave-
50% · 116 games55% · 116 games
Dark Willow9Class
Dark Willow
Lich
LichKataomi
44% · 20 games48% · 48 games
Ogre MagiDukalis
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction missed25:21
BETBOOM TEAM 59%PARIVISION 41%
The model gave 59% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 42:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistPure~
57% · 160 games43% · 107 games
TerrorbladeDM
Terrorblade
Lina
Linakiyotaka
44% · 112 games53% · 263 games
TinyNo[o]ne
Tiny
Axe
AxeMieRo
44% · 37 games47% · 144 games
RazorCrystallis
Razor
Muerta
MuertaSave-
50% · 163 games52% · 212 games
Dark Willow9Class
Dark Willow
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenKataomi
55% · 274 games53% · 20 games
LichDukalis
Lich
Game 3prediction missed32:34
BETBOOM TEAM 62%PARIVISION 38%
The model gave 62% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 52:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautPure~
44% · 12 games48% · 360 games
GyrocopterCrystallis
Gyrocopter
Tiny
Tinykiyotaka
51% · 290 games52% · 288 games
PuckNo[o]ne
Puck
Magnus
MagnusMieRo
48% · 97 games57% · 60 games
VenomancerDM
Venomancer
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSave-
49% · 243 games48% · 71 game
UndyingDukalis
Undying
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenKataomi
48% · 208 games52% · 71 game
Nyx Assassin9Class
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 69%
Series resultPARIVISION 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3