MESA Invitational 2024 · BO1
result vs predictionAAnimeVestaloss 0:1
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Secretwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AnimeVesta
No games played over 6 months.
Team Secret
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 10 games
Dragon Knightsignature
423 · 8 games
Dark Willow
Kyzko · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 7 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Kyzko · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 6 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kyzko · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Adzantick · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
485 picks · 669 bans
Clockwerk
424 picks · 497 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 538 bans
Dark Willow
358 picks · 184 bans
Luna
330 picks · 437 bans
Batrider
329 picks · 350 bans
Enchantress
316 picks · 596 bans
Dragon Knight
311 picks · 559 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% AnimeVesta
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:28
AnimeVesta 27%Team Secret 73%
The model gave 73% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 35:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 73%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1