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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 44 games
68%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 36 games
86%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 32 games
66%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 32 games
72%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 29 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 28 games
54%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 24 games
79%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
63%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 29 games
72%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 28 games
61%
Razor
Razorsignature
miCKe · 24 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
iNSaNiA · 23 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
70%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 23 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 22 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 21 game
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
486 picks · 670 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
425 picks · 496 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 539 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
358 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
331 picks · 439 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
327 picks · 349 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
315 picks · 597 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
310 picks · 555 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Team Falcons
Head-to-head6 – 3
Model total68% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:32
Team Falcons 60%Team Liquid 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:09:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSkiter
46% · 98 games49% · 119 games
Templar AssassinmiCKe
Templar Assassin
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMalr1ne
41% · 38 games45% · 28 games
UndyingSabeRLight-
Undying
Viper
ViperATF
54% · 39 games60% · 151 game
Earth SpiritNisha
Earth Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
51% · 236 games53% · 16 games
OracleiNSaNiA
Oracle
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
47% · 182 games50% · 279 games
HoodwinkBoxi
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed9:37
Team Falcons 59%Team Liquid 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
52% · 142 games48% · 243 games
TinyNisha
Tiny
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
49% · 218 games50% · 138 games
Monkey KingmiCKe
Monkey King
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
49% · 397 games48% · 193 games
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
Primal Beast
Muerta
MuertaCr1t-
50% · 217 games47% · 228 games
PhoenixiNSaNiA
Phoenix
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiSneyking
56% · 94 games51% · 266 games
HoodwinkBoxi
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction missed40:43
Team Falcons 61%Team Liquid 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:17:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
53% · 165 games51% · 99 games
Earth SpiritNisha
Earth Spirit
Earthshaker
EarthshakerSkiter
51% · 60 games40% · 216 games
MorphlingmiCKe
Morphling
Timbersaw
TimbersawMalr1ne
58% · 277 games51% · 221 game
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
Primal Beast
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
47% · 442 games48% · 282 games
BatriderBoxi
Batrider
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSneyking
55% · 51 game47% · 177 games
PhoenixiNSaNiA
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 68%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3