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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 44 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Larl · 29 games
62%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 26 games
81%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Miposhka · 25 games
48%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Malik · 24 games
71%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Larl · 23 games
52%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 23 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Miposhka · 23 games
52%

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 25 games
76%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 16 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
No!ob · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 15 games
33%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 15 games
87%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
OmaR · 14 games
64%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Miracle- · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
486 picks · 672 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
424 picks · 496 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 539 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
359 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
331 picks · 440 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
327 picks · 347 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
315 picks · 598 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
310 picks · 553 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total73% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:9
Team Spirit 64%Nigma Galaxy 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSatanic
48% · 109 games50% · 80 games
SniperSumaiL
Sniper
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
49% · 222 games40% · 30 games
Drow RangerMiracle-
Drow Ranger
Magnus
MagnusMalik
52% · 124 games44% · 177 games
BeastmasterNo!ob
Beastmaster
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMiposhka
59% · 119 games51% · 273 games
Shadow DemonOmaR
Shadow Demon
Lion
Lionrue
54% · 230 games49% · 244 games
ClockwerkGH
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct22:18
Team Spirit 61%Nigma Galaxy 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSatanic
47% · 108 games53% · 285 games
Storm SpiritSumaiL
Storm Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMalik
48% · 169 games60% · 75 games
EarthshakerMiracle-
Earthshaker
Tiny
TinyLarl
48% · 311 games48% · 337 games
MarsNo!ob
Mars
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterrue
49% · 227 games49% · 180 games
PugnaGH
Pugna
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMiposhka
47% · 245 games51% · 183 games
MuertaOmaR
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 73%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2