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European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hokoriloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ani-san · 7 games
57%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
43%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 7 games
29%
Underlord
Underlord
Actor · 7 games
29%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Ethereal · 5 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Actor · 5 games
20%
Snapfire
Snapfire
ani-san · 5 games
20%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Actor · 4 games
25%

Hokori

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Lumière · 4 games
75%
Muerta
Muerta
Genek · 4 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Genek · 3 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Gardick · 3 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
67%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Gardick · 3 games
33%
Lion
Lion
Genek · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
486 picks · 674 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
424 picks · 496 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 539 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
358 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
331 picks · 442 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
326 picks · 348 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
314 picks · 597 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
311 picks · 552 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength58% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Hydra 61%Hokori 39%
The model gave 61% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra.
Game 2prediction correct
Hydra 61%Hokori 39%
The model gave 61% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 61%
Series resultHydra 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2