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MESA Invitational 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Secretloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Akashi · 17 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kuku · 16 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Kuku · 15 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Ponyo · 13 games
46%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 13 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 12 games
58%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Ws · 11 games
45%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Jhocam · 11 games
64%

Team Secret

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 10 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Kyzko · 6 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
423 · 6 games
83%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Kyzko · 6 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 6 games
33%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kyzko · 5 games
20%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Adzantick · 5 games
80%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Puppey · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
485 picks · 674 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
423 picks · 496 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
372 picks · 539 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
357 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
331 picks · 442 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
326 picks · 346 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
314 picks · 596 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
309 picks · 552 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 36%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:12
Talon Esports 70%Team Secret 30%
The model gave 70% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 27:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNatsumi
49% · 338 games44% · 308 games
Dragon Knight423
Dragon Knight
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWs
48% · 255 games50% · 118 games
Dawnbreakerseimei
Dawnbreaker
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMikoto
51% · 75 games47% · 394 games
PangolierAinkrad
Pangolier
Chen
ChenKuku
60% · 136 games51% · 45 games
LichPuppey
Lich
Lion
LionJhocam
56% · 312 games47% · 251 game
TuskKyzko
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct35:12
Talon Esports 70%Team Secret 30%
The model gave 70% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 31:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMikoto
43% · 143 games47% · 292 games
Dragon Knight423
Dragon Knight
Ursa
UrsaNatsumi
50% · 114 games47% · 306 games
PangolierAinkrad
Pangolier
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWs
48% · 187 games56% · 139 games
Magnusseimei
Magnus
Chen
ChenKuku
56% · 138 games51% · 199 games
Dark WillowKyzko
Dark Willow
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJhocam
55% · 376 games48% · 22 games
AbaddonPuppey
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 82%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2