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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:1
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
AVULUSloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 18 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
DM · 16 games
63%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 15 games
80%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
73%
Razor
Razorsignature
Crystallis · 15 games
73%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Dukalis · 14 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 13 games
62%

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 31 game
71%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 30 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 30 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 27 games
63%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 26 games
65%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 24 games
54%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 22 games
77%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Ekki · 21 game
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
485 picks · 674 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
423 picks · 496 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
371 picks · 539 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
356 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
331 picks · 442 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
325 picks · 345 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
312 picks · 596 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 550 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total71% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:4
PARIVISION 61%AVULUS 39%
The model gave 61% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 43:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNo[o]ne
51% · 321 game57% · 228 games
AlchemistSmiling Knight
Alchemist
Razor
RazorCrystallis
46% · 185 games41% · 133 games
LinaStormstormer
Lina
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDM
57% · 294 games51% · 287 games
DoomXibbe
Doom
Dark Willow
Dark Willow9Class
48% · 170 games49% · 311 games
EnchantressSoNNeikO
Enchantress
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiDukalis
54% · 54 games45% · 65 games
Shadow ShamanEkki
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed10:27
PARIVISION 60%AVULUS 40%
The model gave 60% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by AVULUS in 31:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
46% · 117 games51% · 187 games
PuckStormstormer
Puck
Spectre
SpectreCrystallis
50% · 16 games53% · 156 games
Monkey KingSmiling Knight
Monkey King
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDM
46% · 246 games52% · 316 games
PangolierXibbe
Pangolier
Naga Siren
Naga SirenDukalis
56% · 134 games46% · 189 games
EnchantressSoNNeikO
Enchantress
Batrider
Batrider9Class
47% · 400 games55% · 65 games
Nyx AssassinEkki
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction correct32:30
PARIVISION 60%AVULUS 40%
The model gave 60% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 42:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackCrystallis
57% · 98 games52% · 38 games
SlarkSmiling Knight
Slark
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDM
40% · 127 games50% · 92 games
DawnbreakerXibbe
Dawnbreaker
Magnus
MagnusNo[o]ne
53% · 128 games53% · 27 games
ViperStormstormer
Viper
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin9Class
56% · 43 games48% · 94 games
EnigmaSoNNeikO
Enigma
Lich
LichDukalis
43% · 19 games47% · 164 games
LionEkki
Lion
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 71%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3