MESA Invitational 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SHSable Hatloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
Batrideroften banned
Q · 16 games
Timbersawsignature
Jabz · 15 games
Hoodwink
Q · 14 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 14 games
Snapfire
Q · 13 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Q · 12 games
Enchantresssignature
Malady · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 12 games
Sable Hat
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
485 picks · 674 bans
Clockwerk
423 picks · 496 bans
Pangolier
371 picks · 539 bans
Dark Willow
356 picks · 184 bans
Luna
331 picks · 442 bans
Batrider
325 picks · 345 bans
Enchantress
312 picks · 596 bans
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 550 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Aurora Gaming 91%Sable Hat 9%
The model gave 91% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming.
Game 2prediction correct
Aurora Gaming 91%Sable Hat 9%
The model gave 91% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 91%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2