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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 44 games
68%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 35 games
86%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 32 games
72%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 31 game
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 29 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 27 games
56%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 24 games
79%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 24 games
79%

BETBOOM TEAM

Batrider
Batridersignature
Save- · 29 games
66%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Kataomi · 28 games
50%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Save- · 22 games
82%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 20 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Save- · 20 games
65%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 18 games
61%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 18 games
78%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Pure~ · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
485 picks · 674 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
421 picks · 496 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
369 picks · 537 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
356 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
331 picks · 442 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
324 picks · 341 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
311 picks · 596 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
307 picks · 546 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head10 – 2
Model total54% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:14
Team Falcons 53%BETBOOM TEAM 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 40:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
50% · 140 games49% · 60 games
UrsaPure~
Ursa
Earthshaker
EarthshakerSkiter
51% · 57 games42% · 166 games
Morphlingkiyotaka
Morphling
Lina
LinaMalr1ne
46% · 126 games54% · 168 games
Primal BeastMieRo
Primal Beast
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
50% · 344 games54% · 209 games
HoodwinkKataomi
Hoodwink
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanCr1t-
54% · 30 games53% · 94 games
MuertaSave-
Muerta
Game 2prediction missed25:38
Team Falcons 53%BETBOOM TEAM 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 50:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
48% · 338 games51% · 378 games
Dragon KnightPure~
Dragon Knight
Earthshaker
EarthshakerSkiter
52% · 85 games52% · 201 game
Invokerkiyotaka
Invoker
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
47% · 502 games51% · 327 games
MarsMieRo
Mars
Batrider
BatriderCr1t-
49% · 505 games46% · 373 games
Crystal MaidenKataomi
Crystal Maiden
Pugna
PugnaSneyking
49% · 188 games56% · 339 games
Shadow DemonSave-
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction missed24:39
Team Falcons 53%BETBOOM TEAM 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 52:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingSkiter
49% · 35 games37% · 125 games
MorphlingPure~
Morphling
Magnus
MagnusATF
58% · 143 games39% · 46 games
Queen of Painkiyotaka
Queen of Pain
Monkey King
Monkey KingMalr1ne
60% · 149 games49% · 107 games
DoomMieRo
Doom
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSneyking
66% · 24 games40% · 64 games
MuertaSave-
Muerta
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageCr1t-
47% · 11 games46% · 20 games
LichKataomi
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 54%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3