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European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
4Piratesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 13 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 11 games
45%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 8 games
38%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
MikSa` · 8 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Stojkov · 8 games
88%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
LeBronDota · 8 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Thiolicor · 7 games
57%

4Pirates

Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 6 games
33%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 5 games
60%
Lion
Lion
ariel · 4 games
75%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 4 games
75%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
мистер мораль · 4 games
25%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Otaker · 4 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 4 games
75%
Underlord
Underlord
мистер мораль · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
485 picks · 674 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
421 picks · 496 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
369 picks · 537 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
356 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
331 picks · 442 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
324 picks · 341 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
311 picks · 596 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
307 picks · 546 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Zero Tenacity 76%4Pirates 24%
The model gave 76% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by 4Pirates.
Game 2prediction correct
Zero Tenacity 76%4Pirates 24%
The model gave 76% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Game 3prediction correct
Zero Tenacity 76%4Pirates 24%
The model gave 76% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 76%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3