Asgard Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eaters Ariseloss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NHNo Hoodwinkwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rune Eaters Arise
Hoodwink
waveformn · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ethereal · 5 games
Largooften banned
Ankou · 5 games
Marcioften banned
waveformn · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Ethereal · 4 games
Winter Wyvern
ani-san · 4 games
Centaur Warrunner
Ankou · 3 games
Enchantress
ani-san · 3 games
No Hoodwink
Ember Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 5 games
Lion
Katari_ · 5 games
Dark Willow
Katari_ · 4 games
Mirana
Katari_ · 4 games
Winter Wyvern
asdekor_r · 4 games
Baneoften banned
asdekor_r · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
rubikon155 · 3 games
Broodmother
mangekyou · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
501 picks · 353 bans
Clockwerk
354 picks · 642 bans
Bane
346 picks · 394 bans
Rubick
330 picks · 187 bans
Ember Spirit
317 picks · 454 bans
Tiny
315 picks · 344 bans
Windranger
301 picks · 229 bans
Shadow Fiend
299 picks · 570 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Rune Eaters Arise
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Rune Eaters Arise
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:39
Rune Eaters Arise 56%No Hoodwink 44%
The model gave 56% on Rune Eaters Arise — the game was taken by No Hoodwink in 38:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophosyowaai
Puckre1bl
LargoAnkou
Beastmasterrubikon155
HuskarEthereal
Enigmamangekyou
Miranaxsvampire
GrimstrokeKatari_
Hoodwinkani-san
Lichasdekor_r
Game 2prediction missed34:31
Rune Eaters Arise 54%No Hoodwink 46%
The model gave 54% on Rune Eaters Arise — the game was taken by No Hoodwink in 45:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendyowaai
Terrorbladerubikon155
PangolierEthereal
Invokerre1bl
TidehunterAnkou
Dark Seermangekyou
Hoodwinkxsvampire
GrimstrokeKatari_
Undyingani-san
Lichasdekor_r
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters Arise · 58%
Series resultNo Hoodwink 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2