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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 1:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 44 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Larl · 29 games
62%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 26 games
81%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Miposhka · 25 games
48%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Malik · 24 games
71%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Larl · 23 games
52%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 23 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Miposhka · 23 games
52%

Shopify Rebellion

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Timado · 15 games
53%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Hellscream · 14 games
64%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yopaj · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 13 games
46%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
mangekyou · 12 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Skem · 12 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Yopaj · 11 games
64%
Visage
Visageoften banned
mangekyou · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
485 picks · 673 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
421 picks · 494 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 537 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
355 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
331 picks · 442 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
324 picks · 339 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
310 picks · 596 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
307 picks · 544 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Spirit 65%Shopify Rebellion 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 65%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1