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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:1
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Nigma Galaxywin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 29 games
72%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 28 games
61%
Razor
Razorsignature
miCKe · 24 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
iNSaNiA · 23 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
70%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 23 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 21 game
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 21 game
52%

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 25 games
76%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 16 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
No!ob · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 15 games
33%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 15 games
87%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
OmaR · 14 games
64%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Miracle- · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
485 picks · 673 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
421 picks · 494 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 537 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
355 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
331 picks · 442 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
324 picks · 339 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
310 picks · 596 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
307 picks · 544 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total84% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Team Liquid 84%Nigma Galaxy 16%
The model gave 84% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 84%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1