MESA Invitational 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:1
AAnimeVestaloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 8 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Kyzko · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 6 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kyzko · 5 games
Dark Willow
Kyzko · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Adzantick · 5 games
Ogre Magi
Puppey · 5 games
Alchemistoften banned
423 · 4 games
AnimeVesta
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
485 picks · 673 bans
Clockwerk
421 picks · 493 bans
Pangolier
367 picks · 537 bans
Dark Willow
354 picks · 184 bans
Luna
331 picks · 442 bans
Batrider
322 picks · 339 bans
Enchantress
310 picks · 596 bans
Alchemist
305 picks · 689 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% AnimeVesta
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:43
Team Secret 50%AnimeVesta 50%
The model gave 50% on AnimeVesta — the game was taken by AnimeVesta in 42:27.
Game 2prediction missed43:13
Team Secret 50%AnimeVesta 50%
The model gave 50% on AnimeVesta — the game was taken by Team Secret in 33:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteAnimeVesta · 50%
Accuracy by game1 of 2