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MESA Invitational 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Akashi · 17 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kuku · 16 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Kuku · 15 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Ponyo · 13 games
46%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 13 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 12 games
58%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Ws · 11 games
45%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Jhocam · 11 games
64%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 35 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 26 games
69%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 23 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 22 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 19 games
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 18 games
83%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
gotthejuice · 18 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Riddys · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
483 picks · 673 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
419 picks · 493 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
365 picks · 535 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
354 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
331 picks · 442 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
320 picks · 336 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
310 picks · 596 bans
53%
Alchemist
Alchemist
305 picks · 681 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 73%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:10
Talon Esports 42%Natus Vincere Junior 58%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 30:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMikoto
46% · 119 games43% · 192 games
Morphlinggotthejuice
Morphling
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerWs
45% · 92 games55% · 142 games
Magnuspma
Magnus
Weaver
WeaverNatsumi
57% · 159 games48% · 302 games
PangolierNiku
Pangolier
Naga Siren
Naga SirenKuku
55% · 106 games58% · 54 games
Ogre MagiRiddys
Ogre Magi
Lion
LionJhocam
50% · 247 games45% · 33 games
Shadow ShamanZayac
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct14:30
Talon Esports 41%Natus Vincere Junior 59%
The model gave 59% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 41:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingNatsumi
52% · 11 games53% · 135 games
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Templar Assassin
Invoker
InvokerMikoto
51% · 164 games54% · 102 games
Dark Seerpma
Dark Seer
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWs
45% · 130 games56% · 311 games
TinyNiku
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJhocam
50% · 372 games46% · 56 games
Nyx AssassinZayac
Nyx Assassin
Pugna
PugnaKuku
50% · 135 games44% · 208 games
PhoenixRiddys
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 62%
Accuracy by game1 of 2