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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 21 game
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Yadomi · 18 games
78%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Matthew · 18 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 18 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 16 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Matthew · 16 games
63%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Sacred · 15 games
80%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DarkMago · 15 games
60%

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 43 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Larl · 29 games
62%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 26 games
81%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Miposhka · 25 games
48%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Malik · 24 games
71%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Larl · 23 games
52%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 22 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Miposhka · 22 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
483 picks · 673 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
418 picks · 493 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
365 picks · 535 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
354 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
331 picks · 442 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
315 picks · 335 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
308 picks · 595 bans
53%
Alchemist
Alchemist
305 picks · 675 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:19
BOOM Esports 49%Team Spirit 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 23:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
TidehunterFbz
46% · 118 games42% · 331 game
MorphlingSatanic
Morphling
Bristleback
BristlebackJaCkky
52% · 113 games50% · 358 games
TinyLarl
Tiny
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMac
51% · 343 games51% · 175 games
MagnusMalik
Magnus
Batrider
BatriderTims
46% · 464 games49% · 355 games
Hoodwinkrue
Hoodwink
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenJaunuel
50% · 345 games63% · 164 games
ChenMiposhka
Chen
Game 2prediction missed44:9
BOOM Esports 48%Team Spirit 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 30:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJaCkky
43% · 268 games54% · 152 games
Templar AssassinSatanic
Templar Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFbz
45% · 198 games55% · 102 games
DawnbreakerMalik
Dawnbreaker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMac
48% · 201 game56% · 50 games
HuskarLarl
Huskar
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernJaunuel
47% · 39 games54% · 348 games
Shadow DemonMiposhka
Shadow Demon
Batrider
BatriderTims
46% · 277 games53% · 331 game
Clockwerkrue
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2