MESA Invitational 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
The MongolZwin 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SHSable Hatloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The MongolZ
Batrideroften banned
Hishge · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
JG · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
Hishge · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Wonder'boy · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Wonder'boy · 1 game
Sable Hat
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
483 picks · 673 bans
Clockwerk
418 picks · 493 bans
Pangolier
365 picks · 535 bans
Dark Willow
354 picks · 184 bans
Luna
331 picks · 442 bans
Batrider
315 picks · 335 bans
Enchantress
308 picks · 595 bans
Alchemist
305 picks · 675 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% The MongolZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Sable Hat
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
The MongolZ 40%Sable Hat 60%
The model gave 60% on Sable Hat — the game was taken by The MongolZ.
Game 2prediction missed
The MongolZ 40%Sable Hat 60%
The model gave 60% on Sable Hat — the game was taken by The MongolZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteSable Hat · 60%
Series resultThe MongolZ 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2