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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 28 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Razor
Razorsignature
miCKe · 24 games
67%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 23 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
59%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
68%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 21 game
71%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
miCKe · 20 games
65%

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 25 games
76%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
No!ob · 16 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
OmaR · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 14 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 14 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Miracle- · 14 games
57%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 14 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
486 picks · 674 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
417 picks · 493 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
364 picks · 535 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
355 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
333 picks · 445 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
312 picks · 333 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
309 picks · 524 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
308 picks · 595 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total57% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:20
Team Liquid 53%Nigma Galaxy 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 40:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinmiCKe
46% · 151 game60% · 34 games
ClinkzMiracle-
Clinkz
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
45% · 220 games50% · 371 game
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Viper
ViperNisha
45% · 43 games58% · 147 games
Monkey KingSumaiL
Monkey King
Batrider
BatriderBoxi
46% · 306 games52% · 237 games
Shadow DemonOmaR
Shadow Demon
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
49% · 115 games51% · 46 games
Ogre MagiGH
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction missed10:38
Team Liquid 52%Nigma Galaxy 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 36:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaNisha
48% · 86 games53% · 116 games
SniperSumaiL
Sniper
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
45% · 159 games57% · 78 games
EarthshakerMiracle-
Earthshaker
Tiny
TinymiCKe
44% · 292 games56% · 41 game
DazzleNo!ob
Dazzle
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
49% · 215 games48% · 357 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Clockwerk
ClockwerkiNSaNiA
49% · 215 games53% · 375 games
Centaur WarrunnerOmaR
Centaur Warrunner
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2